Issue #3 III quarter 2025

Issue Highlights

The development of global economic sectors and regions in Q3 2025 took place amid the stabilization of US trade policy, including the conclusion of trade agreements with the EU, South Korea, and Japan, and the extension of the “trade truce” with China; a sharp intensification of the AI boom, manifested in the large-scale construction of AI data centers and raising questions about the readiness of traditional devices and technologies for the new wave of AI; large-scale cyberattacks, marking qualitatively new challenges in the field of cybersecurity associated with the active use of AI technologies. Players in most industries began to adapt to doing business under the conditions of new protectionism, sanction pressure, and technological confrontation (locating capacities in the US, relocating electronics production from China, localizing Chinese automotive industry in Europe). The PRC's successes in achieving technological sovereignty are unprecedented, as is its high level of activity in introducing countermeasures during its confrontation with the US.

The activities of the world's largest companies in Q2 2025 remained positive, with the Global Performance Index (GPI) at 63%, meaning that almost two-thirds of companies increased their revenue year-on-year. However, the index is 5 p.p. lower than in the previous quarter, due to a sharp decline in the oil and gas and transport and logistics sectors, which experienced price pressure and high uncertainty caused by sanctions rhetoric and the trade and political agenda. The gap between the performance of companies in developed and developing countries narrowed compared to Q1 2025, with the GPI at 59% and 69%, respectively.

Investors' view on the near-term development prospects of the world's largest companies is moderately optimistic — in Q3 2025, the value of the largest corporations increased on average by 9% compared to the second quarter of the year. Key factors that contributed to the positive investor sentiment included the easing of US trade policy, including trade agreements with the European Union (EU), South Korea, Japan, and the extension of the "trade truce" with China; the beginning of manufacturers' adaptation to conducting business under new geopolitical conditions; and the strengthening of the AI boom, manifested in large-scale construction of AI data centers and the integration of artificial intelligence technologies by corporations into products and operational activities.

Oil and gas

In the global oil and gas industry, key events affecting the market and price dynamics include expectations of tightening sanctions pressure on Russia, continued production increases by OPEC+ countries, US trade agreements with major partners, and the extension of the "trade truce" with China. The sector continues to experience falling prices, which, according to analysts, may persist until the end of 2026.

Steel

In the global steel industry, key producing countries are further tightening access to their domestic markets, primarily targeting Chinese products. Despite this, China maintains its status as the largest producer and is increasing exports. The EU, the United Kingdom, and Mexico are negotiating with the US to ensure eased access for products from their industries to the American market.

Food sector

In the food sector, assets portfolios and supply chains are being optimized. To adapt to the changing economic and climate environment, the largest players in the industry are ramping up innovation, focusing on AI technologies, bioengineering, and creative formats for engaging with customers.

Pharmaceutical industry

Representatives of the global pharmaceutical industry are returning to a strategy of targeted acquisitions, aiming not at scaling but at scientific focus and technological strengthening, while simultaneously restructuring consumer communications. Q3 2025 was marked by a sharp deterioration in the investment climate in the UK pharmaceutical sector — several major international companies have suspended or revised their investment plans in the country.

Automotive industry

The most striking trend in the global automotive industry, transforming from isolated cases into a full-fledged trend, is the localization of Chinese manufacturers' activities in Europe. At the same time, the financial condition of European automotive companies is causing serious concern—revenues have declined and profits have fallen sharply for nearly all leading manufacturers, large-scale staff reductions are underway, and the most difficult situation is observed in the automotive industries of Germany and the United Kingdom.

Semiconductor industry

In the global semiconductor industry, the intense technological war between the US and China continues. A distinctive feature of this trend in Q3 2025 is the high activity of Chinese authorities in introducing retaliatory and restrictive measures as China approaches semiconductor sovereignty. The AI boom is intensifying further, stimulating joint projects, investments, and accelerating company valuations. Despite some stabilization, US trade policy forces manufacturers to expand and localize production within the States.

Consumer electronics

The consumer electronics industry is accelerating growth amid the AI boom, while key players in the AI industry recognize an urgent need to develop fundamentally new AI-supporting devices and announce independent projects in this direction. India and other Asian countries are benefiting from the US-China trade war due to the relocation of production from the Chinese market; nevertheless, in certain segments and the industry as a whole, leadership is shifting to manufacturers from China.

IT equipment

The intensification of the AI boom and large-scale construction of AI data centers is generating high demand for all types of IT equipment. In the technological confrontation between the US and China, resistance from China, which has achieved certain successes on the path to technological sovereignty, is becoming more active. There has been an increase in investment in robotics with a view to its future integration with AI. The industry and the global economy as a whole are experiencing an increase in cyberattacks.

Platform business

In the platform business, active development of autonomous technologies and robotaxis continues. Within the AI race, major platforms pay special attention to developing their own semiconductor solutions and AI software products. Chinese platforms showed the highest activity in implementing their own chips during the quarter, responding to ongoing export restrictions. The US repeal of the de minimis rule is transforming the e-commerce market, with major platforms shifting focus from the US to Europe.

Software

In the software industry, AI is becoming the central element in the development strategy of major players. Companies are creating new products, expanding and diversifying partnerships in the AI field, and their investments in data center construction have reached record levels. In Q3 2025, the tech community faced qualitatively new challenges in cybersecurity, linked to the active use of AI by both attackers and defenders of digital systems.

Telecommunications

Telecommunications operators are developing 5G technologies and testing 6G. Accelerated development of 5G Standalone is underway; investments in equipment for fixed wireless internet access via 5G have reached record levels. The implementation of AI solutions, including collaborations with the IT sector, is accompanied by doubts about the overall readiness of telecom industry infrastructure for the new wave of AI. Consolidation processes continue in various regions of the world.

Transport and logistics

Throughout the quarter, the global transport and logistics sector experienced a decline in freight rates. US port fees on Chinese ships are changing the structure of the industry, with China imposing reciprocal fees on US-related ships. Persistent tensions in the Red Sea are encouraging the search for alternative routes between Europe and Asia, including via the Northern Sea Route. Consolidation is occurring in rail logistics, and in the aviation segment, the US repeal of the de minimis threshold caused a short-term surge in demand for air transportation.