2025 Issue Catalog

Key factors shaping industry and regional trends in 2025 include aggressive and inconsistent US trade policy, which has triggered a counter-reaction from other countries and a series of negotiations; the intensification of the AI-boom, which has led to structural transformation in several IT sectors and concerns about the emergence of an “AI bubble”; China's advancement toward technological sovereignty, despite ongoing sanctions pressure and a technology war; and increased competitive pressure from Chinese companies in several sectors of the global economy, which has made apparent the lack of competitive advantages and reduced the likelihood of Western countries, primarily Europe and Japan, maintaining their leadership in these sectors (automotive, semiconductors, telecom equipment, AI electronics).

Key sectors of the global economy developed in Q4 2025 under the same set of key factors: the AI boom, protectionism, sanctions, and the "green" agenda. The high prevalence of the AI factor has sparked concerns about the emergence of an "AI bubble," which could lead to market adjustments in the foreseeable future. Consequently, the AI bubble has triggered a structural restructuring in the global semiconductor industry, triggering a crisis in the memory market and strategic problems in the consumer electronics industry. The global market is beginning to acclimate to the US administration's trade and political threats, reacting more softly to them, while the US is making concessions in its relations with China. China, in turn, is successfully increasing its technological sovereignty and global power, exacerbating industry crises in other countries (the auto industry and semiconductors in the EU, telecom equipment in Japan), demonstrating leadership and laying the groundwork for the future (robotics, AI gadgets, space manufacturing).

The development of global economic sectors and regions in Q3 2025 took place amid the stabilization of US trade policy, including the conclusion of trade agreements with the EU, South Korea, and Japan, and the extension of the “trade truce” with China; a sharp intensification of the AI boom, manifested in the large-scale construction of AI data centers and raising questions about the readiness of traditional devices and technologies for the new wave of AI; large-scale cyberattacks, marking qualitatively new challenges in the field of cybersecurity associated with the active use of AI technologies. Players in most industries began to adapt to doing business under the conditions of new protectionism, sanction pressure, and technological confrontation (locating capacities in the US, relocating electronics production from China, localizing Chinese automotive industry in Europe). The PRC's successes in achieving technological sovereignty are unprecedented, as is its high level of activity in introducing countermeasures during its confrontation with the US.

The determining factors in the development of most sectors of the global economy in April-June 2025 were the trade war initiated by the United States, the suspension of increased tariffs for most countries by D. Trump in early April, and the achievement of a “trade truce” between the United States and China in May. The resulting high uncertainty in the future and its impact on the global economy had the greatest impact on high-tech sectors with advanced global supply chains (semiconductors, equipment and electronics, the automotive industry) — accelerated purchases, restructuring of production processes, and even more intensive provision of technological sovereignty by China began to occur. D. Trump's policy, announced as a tool for the national industrial development, is bearing fruit — manufacturers of steel products, semiconductors, and electronics began to announce investments in the United States, while the automotive giants are reacting more reservedly for now.

The inconsistent and aggressive trade policy of the new US administration has affected all key sectors of the global economy without exception and put the activities of the world's largest companies in a state of uncertainty. A number of industries - oil and gas, steel, automotive, semiconductors, IT equipment - have become the epicenter of the trade war and sanctions pressure; others - food, consumer electronics - are being used as a tool of confrontation with the United States and a call for negotiations; third - platform business, transportation and logistics, telecommunications, software - are experiencing moderate pressure from the United States and expect further developments; players of the fourth - pharmaceuticals - are not yet reacting to the situation but expanding cooperation with China, however, they are thinking about risk mitigation measures.