Issue #4 IV quarter 2025

Issue Highlights

Key sectors of the global economy developed in Q4 2025 under the same set of key factors: the AI boom, protectionism, sanctions, and the "green" agenda. The high prevalence of the AI factor has sparked concerns about the emergence of an "AI bubble," which could lead to market adjustments in the foreseeable future. Consequently, the AI bubble has triggered a structural restructuring in the global semiconductor industry, triggering a crisis in the memory market and strategic problems in the consumer electronics industry. The global market is beginning to acclimate to the US administration's trade and political threats, reacting more softly to them, while the US is making concessions in its relations with China. China, in turn, is successfully increasing its technological sovereignty and global power, exacerbating industry crises in other countries (the auto industry and semiconductors in the EU, telecom equipment in Japan), demonstrating leadership and laying the groundwork for the future (robotics, AI gadgets, space manufacturing).

The global companies' performance in Q3 2025 maintained its positive momentum. The Global Performance Index (GPI) reached 65%, indicating that nearly two-thirds of companies increased their revenue compared to the same period last year. The index value was 2 percentage points higher than the second quarter of the year. The highest positive GPI growth was observed in the oil and gas sector, where, despite ongoing price volatility and rising operating costs, almost a third of producers increased their revenue, and in the steel industry, where industry conditions gradually recovered after a weak second quarter. The transportation and logistics sector experienced the largest decline, primarily as a result of ongoing pricing pressure on ocean carriers.

Investors remain moderately positive: in the fourth quarter of 2025, the value of the world's largest corporations increased by an average of 5% compared to the third quarter of the year. This growth rate has slowed compared to the previous period, when stock prices were recovering from the shock drop caused by Donald Trump's trade and policy agenda announced at the beginning of his presidential term. There were no major events or shocks at the end of 2025—the intensity of key market dynamics factors (AI development, trade policy, sanctions, etc.) remained largely unchanged. However, the risk of an "AI bubble" has raised some concerns among investors.

Oil and gas

In the global oil and gas industry, key events influencing the market and price dynamics have included increased competition in the global oil market and the formation of a supply overhang over demand, the continued conservative policy of OPEC+, and the development of a trend toward a transition to a balanced global LNG market amid the continued and anticipated commissioning of new production capacity in North America and the Middle East.

Steel

In the global steel industry, increasing protectionism from the EU and the US is causing concern among key trading partners and leading to the redistribution of excess steel to less protected regions, while simultaneously stimulating foreign investment and business diversification. China, despite reducing output and introducing export licensing, remains the primary source of excess capacity, while India is strengthening its position through domestic demand and industrial policy, but is itself facing an influx of cheap imports.

Food sector

The global food sector is shifting its focus from short-term cost control to business restructuring. Companies are reorganizing their portfolios toward functional and protein-based products, investing in local production and energy efficiency, and adapting to increased competition from private labels.

Pharmaceutical industry

The global pharmaceutical industry has entered a phase of reassessing the rules of the game. Companies are simultaneously adapting to increasing pricing and regulatory pressure, expanding local production in the US, and strengthening communication with patients, focusing on trust, brand recognition, and the sustainability of their business models amid political and trade uncertainty.

Automotive industry

Global automotive industry is characterized by China's confident leadership in the quarter and 2025 as a whole. The crisis at European manufacturers is worsening, as they are forced to begin shutting down plants for the first time. Regulators in the world's largest countries (the US, EU, China, Japan, and others) are reducing support for the electric vehicle segment, leading to a decline in demand and automakers revising their strategies toward hybrids and internal combustion engines.

Semiconductor industry

In the global semiconductor industry, unprecedented demand for AI accelerators has led to a reallocation of resources within the industry and a structural crisis in the memory market. At the same time, record demand from AI data centers is driving ultra-high revenue and market capitalization growth, sparking discussions of an "AI bubble." China continues to build a self-sufficient semiconductor industry, while the industry-wide technology war with the US is experiencing a respite.

Consumer electronics

A new, inherently crisis-like trend is unfolding in the consumer electronics industry, driven by the structural restructuring of the semiconductor industry. The resulting memory shortage is driving up prices, narrowing manufacturer margins, and slowing down device upgrades among mainstream consumers. This could lead to changes in purchasing strategies, extended device lifecycles, and delays in model updates. Experts expect market stagnation. The AI boom won't offset the losses from the memory shortage, but it remains the main driver of manufacturers' revenue.

IT equipment

The growing AI boom and large-scale construction of AI data centers continue to drive demand for all types of IT equipment. China's efforts and successes are unprecedented in both import substitution and exports. With the global IT industry focusing on industrial robotics, China is demonstrating leadership and establishing a distinct robotics industry within its technological ecosystem.

Platform business

The platform business continues to face a systemic increase in antitrust and regulatory pressure, which has had a particularly strong impact on e-commerce platforms. Following the US, the European Union is abolishing the de minimis rule, depriving Chinese companies, in particular, of a key competitive advantage. The largest platform giants have significantly increased their investment in AI infrastructure and data centers, indicating that AI is becoming an element of their long-term strategy.

Software

In the software industry, artificial intelligence is cementing its role as a central element of the strategies of major developers and driving increased investment in computing infrastructure. At the same time, the widespread adoption of enterprise and agent-based AI is taking cybersecurity to a whole new level, requiring a rethinking of traditional approaches. The industry continues to consolidate, with the primary goal of closing gaps in its technological capabilities.

Telecommunications

The telecommunications sector is demonstrating increasingly intensive integration of satellite communications and its growing role as part of a hybrid "terrestrial networks + non-terrestrial networks" architecture. The focus of 5G development has shifted from expanding coverage and increasing speeds to building manageable, programmable, and commercially differentiated networks. 6G development is increasingly moving beyond abstract concepts and academic discussions, entering a phase of practical preparation: creating test infrastructure, refining key architectural solutions, and securing spectrum priorities.

Transport and logistics

Trade policies in the US, EU, and China remain a key source of uncertainty in the global transport and logistics sector. Targeted port charges and restrictions against China have increased pressure on maritime shipping and port infrastructure, despite the temporary pause and deferral of some measures agreed upon in November. Transit through the Suez Canal has begun to recover, although insurance costs remain high. The air cargo market has shown growth, but the lifting of de minimis restrictions in the US and EU is weakening cross-border e-commerce and raising expectations of more subdued growth in 2026.