Issue #1. I quarter 2026

Issue Highlights

The first quarter of 2026 marked not just another stage of development for several sectors of the global economy, but the beginning of a structural transformation. The key factors triggering significant industry shifts were the intensification of the AI boom and the conflict in the Middle East. The AI boom continues to fuel the ultra-high growth rates of the semiconductor and IT equipment industries, revealing new bottlenecks in supply chains. As a result, a number of high-tech industries are facing component shortages and rising prices, while the consumer electronics industry is steadily moving toward stagnation. The software industry has begun a massive business model shift (a transition to an AI-based agent economy), which has caused the stock prices of traditional software developers, particularly American giants, to plummet. The escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East has defined all market trends in the global oil and gas industry, propelling it to the top of stock markets and impacting the vast majority of other industries.

The performance of the world's largest companies in 2025 demonstrated positive growth dynamics, with the Global Performance Index (GPI) standing at 68%, virtually unchanged from 2024. However, the contribution of individual industries to the index has changed compared to the previous year: the steel and industrial IT equipment industries improved significantly, while the automotive and logistics industries came under significant pressure, posting GPIs below 50%. Companies from developing countries outperformed their Western peers in terms of growth dynamics and resilience to 2025 challenges, with GPIs of 72% and 65%, respectively.

Investors' outlook remains weakly positive: in Q1 2026, the value of the world's largest corporations increased by an average of 5.6% compared to Q4 2025. The sectoral and geographic points of price growth and decline were influenced by two key factors: the intensification of transformation processes in the IT industry as a result of the AI boom and the conflict in the Middle East. The first factor maintained high expectations in the semiconductor industry, while simultaneously lowering the shares of software companies, primarily American ones, and lowering prices in the consumer electronics sector. The second factor ensured strong price growth in the oil and gas sector and instilled confidence in investors in March in the achievement of strong financial results by logistics operators, especially from developed countries.

Oil and gas

The escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East, which directly impacted the critical transport artery of the Strait of Hormuz and the region's oil and gas production infrastructure, has become a pivotal event in the global oil and gas industry, redefining all market trends. This has led to the most severe crisis in the global oil and gas industry since the oil shocks of the 1970s.

Steel

The global steel industry has become increasingly fragmented due to stricter carbon regulations in the EU and rising global protectionism. China is facing export restrictions and a redirection of flows, while the US and other countries are strengthening tariff barriers and localizing production. At the same time, the transition to "green" steel is accelerating, becoming a key condition for market access.

Food sector

The global food sector is increasingly leveraging digital technologies as a tool for improving efficiency and control. Artificial intelligence is moving beyond isolated pilot projects and is being applied simultaneously in product development, production, and quality control, allowing companies to more quickly adapt to demand and reduce costs. At the same time, there's a growing focus on supply chains: companies are investing in traceability, digital labeling, and the sustainability of raw materials, creating a more transparent and predictable business management model. At the same time, consumption patterns in related categories are shifting. Following in the footsteps of snacks, the beverage market is becoming more flexible, with companies actively testing new formats and blurring the boundaries between categories, combining functionality, convenience, and entertainment.

Pharmaceutical industry

The global pharmaceutical industry is adapting to yet another challenging external environment by reconfiguring business models and portfolios. The looming patent cliff for several blockbuster drugs is forcing companies to intensify internal restructuring and engage more actively in deals and partnerships. Traditional manufacturing hubs are being complemented by a distributed network of facilities and partnerships, ensuring stable access to key markets despite geopolitical and logistical constraints. At the same time, competition is intensifying in oncology, where companies are increasingly turning to the latest scientific developments.

Automotive industry

The Chinese automotive industry continues its impressive expansion in the global automotive sector, taking place against the backdrop of structural restructuring in China's domestic market. This, coupled with US trade policy, is exacerbating the problems facing the automotive industry in developed countries. Automakers are pausing their electric vehicle transitions in response to changes in their countries' regulatory policies. China is announcing large-scale funding for hydrogen technology development. Humanoid robots are increasingly being used in manufacturing, generating excitement among investors.

Semiconductor industry

In the global semiconductor industry, explosive demand from AI is renewing already lofty growth forecasts, eliminating discussions of an "AI bubble" while simultaneously revealing new bottlenecks at both the product and supply chain levels. The scale of planned investment in capacity expansion is unprecedented, while related industries are integrating into the development and production of semiconductor solutions. Despite pressure from the US, China continues to demonstrate tremendous progress in developing the semiconductor industry.

Consumer electronics

The consumer electronics industry continues to suffer from the crisis caused by the shortage and rising prices of memory at the end of last year. Experts predict stagnation, as well as a wave of bankruptcies and restructurings. The component crisis is no longer limited to memory; in the first quarter of 2026, CPUs, helium, silver, and a number of other resources are in short supply. AI is a key driver of product development in the industry: on the one hand, manufacturers are integrating AI agents into existing product lines, while on the other, the development of new devices is rapidly accelerating.

IT equipment

The growing AI boom and large-scale construction of AI data centers continue to drive demand for all types of IT equipment. China is rapidly implementing import substitution in the semiconductor supply chain and accelerating the development of humanoid robots, cementing its global leadership in this area. As part of its technology war with China, the European Union is increasing pressure, while the US is shifting from a strict ban to a controlled, licensed, but very limited access to the technologies.

Platform business

The platform business has increased its concentration around e-commerce leaders and accelerated AI transformation, with competition shifting to control of interfaces and services. Chinese platforms are actively developing vertically integrated AI ecosystems. Regulatory pressure in various countries directly impacts business models (from platform openness to restrictions on fast delivery). Data centers and energy are becoming key drivers of platform economy growth.

Software

The software industry has entered a phase of systemic transformation, characterized by a massive shift from the SaaS model to an AI-based agent economy. AI is being institutionalized at the government level; in the corporate sector, AI is being governed as an institutional entity; the verticalization of AI solutions is changing the nature of competition—new AI companies are no longer competing with each other, but with banks, clinics, and industrial giants; AI is being transformed into a platform model and business process management infrastructure. As a result of this large-scale industry transformation, traditional software company stocks are experiencing one of the sharpest revaluation declines in recent years.

Telecommunications

The telecommunications sector is transforming from a data transmission channel into a computing platform, profiting from AI and industrial automation. In Europe, stagnating revenues are pushing operators toward consolidation and infrastructure sharing, which is directly linked to the political goal of achieving technological sovereignty. Preparations for the next generation of communications are being held back by regulators and falling investment expectations, with the emphasis being on software upgrades rather than hardware replacement. Satellite communications are reaching commercial levels, forcing terrestrial operators to choose between partnerships with orbital providers and additional investments in their own infrastructure.

Transport and logistics

The first quarter of 2026 was marked by significant disruptions in the global transport and logistics sector due to the escalation of the conflict over Iran, which paralyzed the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal. The rerouting of fleets around Africa and the closure of airspace over the Middle East led to a capacity shortage and the imposition of extraordinary charges. The maritime shipping market abruptly shifted from surplus to capacity deficit, spurring increased attention to land corridors and alternative routes. The situation was further complicated by increased protectionism in the US and EU, where tariff revisions and the lifting of e-commerce limits destabilized cross-border shipments.

Finance

In the global financial sector, uncertainty increased in the first quarter of 2026 amid geopolitical risks. Central banks took divergent positions, maintaining tight policies in the US and EU and easing them in China. At the same time, private lending became a source of risk due to rising defaults and liquidity shortages. Despite global instability, the sector intensified M&A and investment banking activity. Payment infrastructure and digital currencies became a battleground for sovereignty, and AI became a key driver of cost reduction and business model transformation.