Issue #3. III quarter 2026

Issue Highlights

In the third quarter of 2026, the key drivers of sectoral change in the global economy remained the deployment of AI infrastructure, the conflict in the Middle East, the push toward technological sovereignty, and China’s global expansion.

The global IT sector continues to experience a "supercycle," generating unprecedented revenues and fueling large-scale investments. The accelerated construction of AI-focused data centers is encountering new constraints, while reliance on Asian suppliers remains critical. Under these conditions, China has gained further opportunities to expand its exports of equipment and electronic components, despite the ongoing technological standoff with the U.S. and the pressure of sanctions. Investors have become more cautious; following four quarters of robust growth, the momentum of IT sector stock prices has slowed significantly, with several market downturns occurring throughout the quarter.

In the global automotive industry, China’s expansion has intensified pressure on European and Japanese manufacturers. The oil and gas sector demonstrated resilience in the face of the Middle East crisis, as escalating tensions added to inflationary pressures and further disrupted supply chains. Meanwhile, the development of AI infrastructure has created new opportunities and growth drivers: record demand for air cargo in the transport and logistics sector, and integration with cloud solutions in telecommunications. In the pharmaceutical industry, the "patent cliff" continues to shape manufacturers' strategies, while in the steel sector, rising protectionism has driven the localization of production and the optimization of asset footprints.

The positive performance trend among the world’s largest companies accelerated significantly in the second quarter of 2026, with the Global Performance Index (GPI) reaching 84% — an increase of 21 percentage points year-on-year. The primary drivers of this growth were the global oil and gas sector (+88 percentage points), fueled by an unprecedented geopolitical premium and a surge in refining margins; the steel industry (+68 percentage points), largely due to protectionist policies in the U.S. and European markets; and the transport and logistics sector (+47 percentage points), which benefited from high freight rates, driven by limited vessel supply and geopolitical tensions, as well as strong demand for air cargo, spurred by the AI-boom. The oil and gas and transport and logistics sectors recorded the highest index levels in Q2 2026 (96% and 95%, respectively), narrowly surpassing the IT sector, which had previously held the lead.

Investors' outlook is mildly positive: in the third quarter of 2026, the value of the world’s largest companies increased by an average of 2.4% quarter-on-quarter. Thus, following four quarters of robust growth, driven primarily by the IT sector (semiconductors, industrial IT equipment, and electronics) amid the AI-boom and the large-scale deployment of AI infrastructure, investor sentiment has shifted toward extreme caution. Although the IT sector remained the primary contributor to the quarter’s positive, albeit modest, performance, the growth rate of its stocks slowed significantly, with the market experiencing several sharp downturns throughout the quarter.

Oil and gas

The global oil and gas industry has demonstrated an ability to adapt to shocks stemming from the situation in the Middle East; however, it is too early to speak of a return to equilibrium. Market functionality has been maintained through the redirection of commodity flows, the pushing of refining capacity to maximum utilization levels, the drawdown of accumulated inventories, and the forced restraint of demand. At the same time, the risk landscape has undergone significant shifts: traditional threats — such as potential shortages of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) — have been compounded by pronounced bottlenecks further along the value chain. Key constraints have emerged in refining, logistics, inventory management, and the development of LNG infrastructure. In this new environment, the resilience of the energy sector is increasingly decoupled from the sheer volume of hydrocarbon reserves and is instead becoming ever more dependent on the efficiency of transport and logistics, the capacity to refine raw materials into high-demand products, and the flexibility to reallocate supplies between regions.

Steel

The global steel industry has continued to evolve amidst intensifying trade protectionism, the regionalization of markets, and excess production capacity. Weak domestic demand in China, combined with high export activity from Chinese producers, has exerted increased pressure on the global market, while India has strengthened its position as a key hub for the growth of both steel consumption and production. In the face of expanding trade barriers, companies have continued to localize production, optimize the geographical footprint of their assets, and develop specialized, high-value-added products.

Pharmaceutical industry

The global pharmaceutical industry continued to adapt to the looming "patent cliff": major manufacturers bolstered their portfolios through acquisitions, while producers of generics and biosimilars prepared to enter markets for drugs losing patent protection. In the market for obesity treatments, competition intensified around ease of administration — ranging from oral tablets to long-acting injectable formulations. Biotechnology companies increasingly turned to reverse mergers as an alternative route to going public and raising capital. In the United States, a new round of pricing agreements demonstrated that drug cost reductions are becoming part of broader negotiations encompassing tariff concessions, manufacturing investments, and the terms of future regulation.

Automotive industry

The global automotive sector is undergoing a structural transformation, driven by stagnant global demand, an accelerated shift toward electrified transport, and intensifying competition. Key trends include the record-breaking expansion of Chinese manufacturers — which is gradually shifting technological and competitive leadership in their favor while putting mounting pressure on Western automakers — the localization of production in the United States, the restructuring of global supply chains (leading to greater regionalization within the industry), and the optimization of production capacity amid a crisis for traditional automotive groups. Competition from China is also taking on new forms, evolving from the export of finished vehicles to the export of technologies and engineering expertise.

Semiconductor industry

The global semiconductor industry is experiencing a "supercycle" driven by the AI-boom, characterized by capacity shortages, rising prices, and record-breaking revenue. Demand for memory and advanced microchips is fueling massive investments in manufacturing, cutting-edge fabrication processes, and chip packaging. Simultaneously, there is a growing push toward technological sovereignty, bolstered by state support and the regionalization of supply chains. At the corporate level, market participants are becoming increasingly integrated through long-term contracts, mutual financing, and acquisitions, while competition is shifting from individual chips to comprehensive AI ecosystems. At the same time, customers are developing their own accelerators, AI is accelerating chip design, while China is strengthening its technological self-reliance. Key industry risks include the prospect of prolonged shortages and a potential overestimation of future demand for AI infrastructure.

Consumer electronics

The consumer electronics industry is experiencing a downturn, driven by a persistent shortage of memory components, exacerbated by the AI-boom, and rising component costs. As smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices become more expensive, the impact is spreading to the mid-range and budget segments, putting further pressure on demand and the affordability of mass-market products. Market polarization is accelerating in favor of premium devices, with industry concentration intensifying around the largest manufacturers. Under these conditions, sales of budget-friendly models are declining, prompting manufacturers to re-evaluate their product portfolios and strategic priorities. To adapt to the crisis, companies are diversifying their component supply chains, restructuring their geographical footprint, and exploring alternative monetization models. Meanwhile, China is strengthening its technological sovereignty by developing its own component base, devices, and software ecosystems, while India is incentivizing the localization of production to reduce its reliance on foreign technology.

IT equipment

In the industrial IT equipment sector, a phase of active expansion and investment in semiconductor manufacturing equipment persisted, with China increasing its procurement while simultaneously accelerating import substitution. In the data center equipment space, the shift toward integrated AI computing systems continued; however, shortages of memory, processors, and other components constrained server shipments, while networking equipment and optical components emerged as the next bottlenecks for AI clusters. Telecom equipment manufacturers shifted their focus from mobile networks to AI data center equipment, while the 5G market recovery remained weak and uneven. In the field of robotics, the integration of AI into traditional industrial robots intensified, and shipments of humanoid robots continued to grow, though the transition toward performing productive industrial tasks remained incomplete.

Platform business

The development of the global platform business has been driven by the deepening integration of artificial intelligence into the infrastructure, services, and business models of major companies. The scaling of AI ecosystems and the proliferation of autonomous agents have intensified competition for user access, while simultaneously increasing investment requirements and the need for sustainable monetization of new technologies. The expansion of computing capacity and the extension of platforms into physical infrastructure have become increasingly dependent on external financing, energy resources, and long-term partnerships. Against this backdrop, the tightening of antitrust regulation, the introduction of stricter AI safety requirements, and a strategic shift toward technological sovereignty have fostered the regionalization of digital infrastructure; meanwhile, the resilience of logistics and computing systems has emerged as a critical prerequisite for the growth of the platform economy.

Software

The software sector has continued its shift from standalone AI assistants to autonomous agent platforms capable of autonomously performing time-consuming tasks on enterprise systems. Competition is increasingly shifting to managing work environments, data, tools and agent powers. The rapid growth in demand for cloud computing is accompanied by an increase in capital expenditures and the debt load of technology companies, exacerbating questions of the return on investment of AI infrastructure. The reduction in cost of basic models and the development of agent-based development tools are changing the economics of software products, increasing the importance of the cost of the work actually performed. Increasing AI autonomy and dependence on third-party software components increases the risk of cyber attacks on supply chains and development environments. Against the backdrop of these changes, increased regulation of AI and demands for digital sovereignty are becoming important factors in competition and access to global software markets.

Telecommunications

The telecommunications sector is facing the exhaustion of traditional growth drivers, as mature markets reach saturation and the rate of traffic growth slows. Key trends include the consolidation of operators, the scaling up of business operations, and the sharing of infrastructure to reduce costs. Furthermore, operators are seeking new revenue streams beyond standard subscription services, primarily through the development of AI-focused data centers, cloud computing, and enterprise network solutions. The industry is shifting from selling raw traffic volume toward monetizing guaranteed service quality, programmable network functions, and private networks. Competition for radio-frequency spectrum is intensifying, alongside the development of satellite communications, which are viewed primarily as a complement to terrestrial networks. While AI is being adopted as a tool for automation and efficiency, it also carries the risk of rising costs without a commensurate gain in productivity. Amidst geopolitical tensions, the use of telecommunications technologies for defense and government purposes is expanding, creating an additional source of demand.

Transport and logistics

The global transport and logistics sector is grappling with a new round of escalation in the Middle East: the blockades of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have triggered a shortage of tanker capacity, a record surge in freight rates, and a large-scale rerouting of oil and LNG shipments. This logistics crisis, compounded by climate anomalies in the Pacific region, has led to unprecedented congestion at global ports and accelerated the development of overland "land bridges" and road corridors across the Middle East. Meanwhile, the autonomous long-haul trucking sector continues to experience a sustained boom, while the expansion of data center infrastructure for AI and the export of microelectronics have emerged as key drivers for high-margin 3PL (third-party logistics) services and record-breaking performance in the air cargo industry.

Finance

In the third quarter of 2026, persistent inflationary pressure and an energy shock prompted further tightening of monetary policy across major developed economies, intensifying the strain that high interest rates place on the global financial sector. Following an investment banking boom in the first half of the year, activity in the IPO and M&A markets slowed; meanwhile, the consolidation of European banks continued, playing out amidst tensions between shareholders, regulators, and national governments. Concurrently, the integration of stablecoins into traditional payment infrastructure accelerated, preparations for a digital euro advanced, and new mechanisms emerged for payments executed by autonomous AI agents. Banks expanded their practical application of artificial intelligence to enhance operational efficiency, while simultaneously navigating new requirements for the oversight of models and technological risks. Approaches to capital regulation remained varied: the United States moved to increase the predictability of stress testing, Switzerland tightened requirements for UBS, and European supervisory authorities placed a growing emphasis on the risks associated with non-bank lending.