Issue #2. II quarter 2026

Issue Highlights

In Q2 2026, the structural transformation that began in Q1 intensified and affected even more sectors of the global economy. Large-scale construction of AI data centers and cloud infrastructure faced a number of growth constraints: a shortage of semiconductors was compounded by a shortage of equipment for their production, basic electronic components, electronic equipment, and other items. Consequently, the slowdown in the planned pace of AI infrastructure construction has become a constraint on the development and scaling of AI models. Despite this, the "physical embodiment" of AI is gaining momentum: manufacturers are beginning to move from pilot projects to scaling up industrial applications of autonomous driving and humanoid robots. At the same time, the AI boom has exposed the critical dependence of high-tech supply chains on Asian suppliers, which, combined with the Middle East crisis, has led to a restructuring of global logistics, regionalization, and the strengthening of digital sovereignty.

The activity of the world's largest companies continued to demonstrate positive dynamics in Q1 2026: the Global Performance Index (GPI) was 72%, up 4 percentage points year-on-year. However, the contribution of individual sectors to the index changed: the situation improved significantly in the oil and gas sector (+19 percentage points) amid a more favorable pricing environment, and in the steel industry (+41 percentage points), in particular as a result of Western markets being protected from cheap imports. The main negative contribution came from the transport and logistics industry (–39 percentage points) due to the end of the period of abnormally high interest rates. A key difference in the Q1 2026 GPI was the lag of companies in developing countries behind their Western competitors, most significantly in the steel industry, the automotive industry, and the financial sector. Thus, companies in developing economies have proven less resilient to modern global challenges.

Investors' outlook is moderately positive: in Q2 2026, the stock prices of the world's largest companies grew by an average of 8.8% quarter-on-quarter. The main driver was the global IT sector, with investor optimism about its prospects not only unabated but also gaining momentum under the influence of the AI boom. Sectors particularly sensitive to new and ongoing global challenges contributed negatively to the overall dynamics: average stock growth rates in the oil and gas, steel, and transportation and logistics sectors fell sharply to near-zero levels; auto industry stocks also moved into negative growth territory.

Oil and gas

In the global oil and gas industry, the crisis in the Middle East remains a pivotal event that has redefined all market trends, directly impacting the critical transport artery of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the region's oil and gas production and production infrastructure. It is already clear that this crisis has not only significantly altered the immediate landscape of the industry, but will also have a long-term structural impact on markets, government policies, and the strategies of oil and gas corporations: security and reliability of supply, as well as unimpeded maritime logistics, are no longer the default conditions for the industry's functioning.

Steel

The global steel industry developed in an environment of increasing trade protectionism, further fragmentation of the global market, and chronic overcapacity, which intensified competition and regionalized supply chains. At the same time, decarbonization and localization of production remained key development areas, but their implementation increasingly depended on government support, trade protection, and access to domestic markets.

Pharmaceutical industry

The global pharmaceutical industry continues to adapt to increasing external pressure by reconsidering investment decisions, deals, and partnership models. The European model of low drug prices is increasingly coming into conflict with Big Pharma's investment strategy: companies are beginning to link the availability of innovative drugs, localized production, and the launch of new projects with the predictability of price regulation. At the same time, the approaching patent cliff is increasing demand for mergers, acquisitions, and licensing agreements, but high-quality biotech companies are finding more alternatives to direct sales, including IPOs, partnerships, and independent commercialization. Against this backdrop, China's controversial role continues: political pressure on the country is growing, but the pharmaceutical industry's interest in Chinese developments has not diminished, as they remain an important source of external innovation for global players.

Automotive industry

In the global automotive sector, China has begun rapidly conquering the European market through localized production, and China's market position in other major economies continues to strengthen. Against this backdrop, the problems facing the automotive industry in developed countries are intensifying: the crisis in Europe is escalating, and in Japan, the number of loss-making and/or declining sales companies is growing. China's domestic market is facing stagnation and the complete electrification of the market. A new turning point in the development of autonomous vehicles has begun: global regulatory consolidation, intensified technological competition, and a transition to scaling.

Semiconductor industry

The global semiconductor industry continues to experience a supercycle. Amid rising demand and prices, manufacturers are generating unprecedented revenues and growing market capitalization, and analysts are adjusting their market forecasts upward. Shortages and high uncertainty have led to a shift from traditional annual contracts to multi-year agreements. At the same time, the market is being redistributed among manufacturers, and new players from related IT segments are emerging, seeking to capitalize on the AI boom and/or secure essential critical components. Regionalization is growing within the industry: China continues to advance toward a sovereign semiconductor industry; Europe, on the fringes of advanced semiconductor production, has reconsidered previous initiatives and adopted a comprehensive strategy to ensure technological sovereignty.

Consumer electronics

The consumer electronics industry continues to be mired in crisis, driven by memory shortages and rising prices. Manufacturers are bracing for a market collapse, employing both price increases and shrinkflation, tools typically isolated from business practices. In the declining global smartphone market, Apple and Samsung Electronics are strengthening their positions as leaders, while Huawei is thriving in the shrinking Chinese market, having regained its top spot. EU and US regulators are undertaking market standardization initiatives, which should reduce consumer costs, including the development of repairability standards and the transition to universal connectors.

IT equipment

In the industrial IT equipment industry, manufacturers' ability to meet unprecedented demand from AI data centers and cloud infrastructure has been limited by a massive shortage of basic electronic components, long lead times for expanding semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and shortages of transformers and cooling equipment. Increasing dependence on Asian suppliers has also become a bottleneck, creating systemic risks for the entire industry—both geopolitical and economic—resulting in a growing trend toward regionalization. The trend toward the "physical embodiment" of AI (robotics, edge AI, new mobility formats) is gaining momentum, ushering in a large-scale transformation of the industrial sector.

Platform business

In the global platform business, the development of AI infrastructure has become the main focus of competition among companies: the largest players have sharply increased investments in data centers, proprietary chips, and cloud computing capacity, integrating AI into all services and business processes. At the same time, regulatory pressure and the pursuit of technological sovereignty by leading economies have intensified, accelerating the regionalization of digital infrastructure and turning access to computing resources into a key factor in economic security.

Software

The software sector has accelerated its transition to an agent-based model, in which AI becomes an independent layer of enterprise systems, connecting data, applications, and workflows. Competition is shifting from standalone models and assistants to platforms capable of managing autonomous agents, corporate context, access, and security. At the same time, the industry's development is increasingly constrained by the availability of computing power, electricity, and capital, while agent-based development tools are changing the organization of work and the economics of software products. Growing reliance on cloud integrations, open source, and shared vendors is increasing systemic supply chain risks. At the national level, digital sovereignty is becoming a practical tool for industrial policy and procurement, accelerating the division of the global software and cloud services market by jurisdiction.

Telecommunications

In the telecommunications sector, operators continued to transform their business models, moving beyond traditional communications. Key trends included the monetization of digital sovereignty through sovereign clouds and control over encryption keys, the commercialization of AI cybersecurity as a standalone product, and a wave of asset consolidation to achieve the scale necessary to finance 5G and AI infrastructure. Satellite D2D communications scaled rapidly but faced monetization challenges, while 5G reached maturity with a focus on FWA and private networks. Operators began major capital investments in physical AI infrastructure, and the discussion about 6G shifted from revolutionary expectations to an evolutionary scenario.

Transport and logistics

The global transport and logistics sector is undergoing a transformation under the influence of the conflict in the Middle East: freight rates are rising, demand for air cargo is growing, the importance of intermodal and multimodal transport is increasing, and the shift to alternative transport corridors is intensifying. The AI boom is becoming a key driver of international logistics development: this has put pressure on cargo capacity, increased demand for project logistics, and increased demand for multimodal supplies of equipment and solutions for AI data centers, particularly in the Asia-US region. The second quarter of 2026 marks the transition of global logistics in the field of autonomous systems from pilot projects to larger-scale commercial implementation.

Finance

In the second quarter of 2026, the energy shock and rising geopolitical tensions once again made inflation the primary driver of the global financial sector and exacerbated monetary policy divergence among major economies. Against this backdrop, high trading revenues, a recovering IPO market, and a return to large-scale deals fueled investment banking activity and accelerated industry consolidation. Artificial intelligence simultaneously provided a source of increased productivity, reduced administrative burdens, and new systemic cyber risks. Capital regulation moved in different directions: the US and EU relaxed certain requirements, while Switzerland strengthened oversight. The integration of stablecoins and digital currencies into banking and payment infrastructure continued, intensifying competition for the architecture of future settlements.