17/1 Malaya Ordynka Str., Moscow, 119017
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Deseatnicov I., Klochko O.
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Deseatnicov I., Fujii D., Kucheryavyy K. et al.
RIETI Discussion Paper Series 20-E-055. RIETI DP. Research Institute of Economy, Trade & Industry, 2020. No. 20-E-055.
The oil refining industry is currently challenged by the energy consumption transformation, which requires adaptation of the petroleum products output programs to the decreased demand for certain types of oil products and disbalancing of markets. The authors identify technological processes and world regions under the greatest risk of excess production capacity and analyze the efficiency of management decisions regarding the optimization of loading oil refining process units. The article presents recommendations for the long term optimization of existing capacities, which are based on the combined approach to the oil refining modeling in the context of the largest regions of oil products consumption. The article also shows that the main changes in the balance of supply and demand for petroleum products are local in nature, and the transformation of consumption will not lead to a decrease in oil refining, but also create incentives for additional investment in the industry.
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Transformation of refinery loading as a result of stricter environmental regulations and development of alternative fuels (PDF, 1.04 Мб)