2026 Issue Catalog

In the third quarter of 2026, the key drivers of sectoral change in the global economy remained the deployment of AI infrastructure, the conflict in the Middle East, the push toward technological sovereignty, and China’s global expansion.

The global IT sector continues to experience a "supercycle," generating unprecedented revenues and fueling large-scale investments. The accelerated construction of AI-focused data centers is encountering new constraints, while reliance on Asian suppliers remains critical. Under these conditions, China has gained further opportunities to expand its exports of equipment and electronic components, despite the ongoing technological standoff with the U.S. and the pressure of sanctions. Investors have become more cautious; following four quarters of robust growth, the momentum of IT sector stock prices has slowed significantly, with several market downturns occurring throughout the quarter.

In Q2 2026, the structural transformation that began in Q1 intensified and affected even more sectors of the global economy. Large-scale construction of AI data centers and cloud infrastructure faced a number of growth constraints: a shortage of semiconductors was compounded by a shortage of equipment for their production, basic electronic components, electronic equipment, and other items. Consequently, the slowdown in the planned pace of AI infrastructure construction has become a constraint on the development and scaling of AI models. Despite this, the "physical embodiment" of AI is gaining momentum: manufacturers are beginning to move from pilot projects to scaling up industrial applications of autonomous driving and humanoid robots. At the same time, the AI boom has exposed the critical dependence of high-tech supply chains on Asian suppliers, which, combined with the Middle East crisis, has led to a restructuring of global logistics, regionalization, and the strengthening of digital sovereignty.

The first quarter of 2026 marked not just another stage of development for several sectors of the global economy, but the beginning of a structural transformation. The key factors triggering significant industry shifts were the intensification of the AI boom and the conflict in the Middle East. The AI boom continues to fuel the ultra-high growth rates of the semiconductor and IT equipment industries, revealing new bottlenecks in supply chains. As a result, a number of high-tech industries are facing component shortages and rising prices, while the consumer electronics industry is steadily moving toward stagnation. The software industry has begun a massive business model shift (a transition to an AI-based agent economy), which has caused the stock prices of traditional software developers, particularly American giants, to plummet. The escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East has defined all market trends in the global oil and gas industry, propelling it to the top of stock markets and impacting the vast majority of other industries.